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The What-If Series (vol. 1, #4): Greg Oden

  • Zach Griffith
  • Aug 15, 2018
  • 6 min read

NBA career: 2007-2014 (only played in '08-'09, '09-'10, and '13-'14)

Draft: 2007, Round 1, #1 overall (Trail Blazers)

Teams: Portland Trail Blazers (2007-12), Miami Heat (2013-14)

Highlights: 2nd Team All-American (2007, at Ohio State), Indiana Mr. Basketball (2006), McDonald's All-American MVP (2006), Naismith Prep Player of the Year (2006), 2x Gatorade Player of the Year (2005, 2006)

Best season: 11.1 pts, 8.5 reb, 2.3 blk, 60% shooting (2009-10, only 21 games)

The Question: What if Greg Oden's knees didn't fail him?

Indiana has a long and storied history of great high school basketball players. Larry Bird. Oscar Robertson. Zach Randolph. Damon Bailey. The Zeller brothers. The list goes on.

Most of those guys went on to have long NBA careers, and some even made the Hall of Fame or went down as one of the greats.

Greg Oden had that kind of talent.

You might notice that I didn't include any of Oden's NBA highlights. That's because there are none to speak of. Injuries riddled the big man's career almost immediately after he entered the league from Ohio State.

And yet, the Trail Blazers drafted him over Kevin Durant. KEVIN. DURANT. That should tell you all you need to know about Oden's status heading into the '07 draft.

In one of the most tragic cases of injuries in league history, Greg Oden's body failed him before his NBA journey ever got started.

Here's what could've been.

Part I. Before the Injury

Greg Oden attended Lawrence North High School in Indianapolis from 2002 to 2006. While there, he teamed up with future NBA player Mike Conley, and together they led Lawrence North to three straight state titles.

Oden was absolutely dominant in his junior and senior years, where he was named USA Today Player of the Year and Gatorade Player of the Year for those seasons. In his senior year, Oden was named Indiana Mr. Basketball, as well as USA Mr. Basketball in 2006. Following the year, Oden and Conley both committed to play college ball at Ohio State University under coach Thad Matta.

With the Buckeyes, Oden started off the '06-'07 season on the bench due to a wrist injury. When December came around, OSU was ready to roll out its most prized recruit. Oden rewarded Matta and the Buckeyes for their long wait, posting 14 points, 10 rebounds and 5 blocks against Valparaiso. In that same month, Steve Kerr (then an analyst) described Oden as a "once-in-a-decade player."

Before the NCAA tournament began, Oden was named First Team All-Big Ten, as well as the conference's Defensive Player of the Year. In the tournament, Oden became a driving force in the Buckeyes' road to the National Championship game.

In the second round against Xavier, Oden fouled out for the first time in his college career. As it turns out, foul trouble would continue to plague Oden throughout the postseason. In the Sweet Sixteen against Tennessee, however, he blocked the potential game-winning shot, and Ohio State went on to the Elite Eight.

After defeating Memphis, Oden and OSU advanced to the Final Four in a matchup with Georgetown. The Buckeyes downed the Hoyas by a score of 67-60, claiming the South Regional title and moving on to the National Championship game against Florida.

In the title game, a loaded Gators squad proved to be too much for Oden, Conley and the Buckeyes. Led by Al Horford, Joakim Noah and Corey Brewer, Florida defeated Ohio State 84-75. Oden did everything he could, posting 25 points, 12 rebounds and 4 blocks.

Oden finished his Ohio State career with averages of 15.7 points, 9.6 rebounds and 3.3 blocks. He shot 61.6% from the floor and played in 32 of a possible 39 games, which turned out to be the healthiest he would ever be in his career. Oh, and get this: in his college and high school careers, Oden never lost a home game.

Following the game, Oden and Conley declared for the 2007 NBA Draft, where Oden where was seen as a surefire lottery pick, and quite possibly the number one pick. He was the most dominant big man in the country; Oden could run the floor as well as anybody, made defenders think twice before coming down the lane with his shot-blocking, was capable of grabbing 10 to 12 boards on any given night, and had an uncanny ability to finish through defenders without charging.

In a draft class that included an all-time great (Durant), three future All-Stars (Horford, Noah, Marc Gasol), and multiple guys who had productive careers (Brewer, Thaddeus Young, Conley, Jeff Green, Spencer Hawes, Nick Young, Rodney Stuckey, Marco Belinelli, Jared Dudley, Arron Afflalo, Glen Davis, Wilson Chandler, Aaron Brooks, Josh McRoberts), Oden was viewed as the top prize. When draft night came around, Oden was chosen #1 overall by the Portland Trail Blazers.

And so begins the tragedy.

Part II. The Injury/Aftermath

Oden's NBA career immediately began with injuries.

In September 2007, he underwent microfracture surgery on his right knee and missed the entire '07-'08 season as a result. The following season, in his NBA debut, Oden went down with a foot injury against the Lakers and missed two weeks of action.

When he returned in November, he scored his first professional points against the Heat. In January 2009, he finally showed the potential that fans and critics alike knew he possessed, posting 24 points and 15 rebounds in a blowout win over the Bucks. Next month, however, he bumped knees with Corey Maggette against Golden State and was forced to miss three weeks.

For the '08-'09 season, Oden played in a career-high 61 games, starting in 39 of them and playing 21.5 minutes per game (was on a minutes restriction most of the year). As the '09-'10 season approached, Blazers fans were excited for the team's chances in the Western Conference. Portland had made the playoffs the year before even with Oden playing limited minutes. With a core of LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy and Oden, who could've blamed them for getting their hopes up?

But it wasn't meant to be.

Despite starting the season off strong (Oden posted a few 20-point games, as well as a 20-rebound performance), Oden's season was again cut short by injury. This time, he went down with a fractured patella and was ruled out for the rest of the '09-'10 season. Barely into the next season, '10-'11, Oden again had surgery on his left knee, and missed the entire year.

Before the '11-'12 season, Oden suffered a setback in his recovery from left knee surgery. He also had to undergo surgery on his right knee. Oden then had to have another surgery done to his left knee, but during that procedure it was discovered that his cartilage had been damaged, so he underwent a third microfracture surgery.

After dealing with countless injuries, the Trail Blazers decided to waive Oden in March 2012. Shortly after that, Oden stated that he would sit out the entire '12-'13 season in order to rehab his knees.

In August 2013, Oden signed a one-year contract with the Heat. Miami was looking for a more defensive presence to back up Chris Bosh as the man in the middle, while LeBron James and Dwyane Wade continued running the show offensively.

In October 2013, he played in his first game in almost four years, posting 2 points and 2 rebounds in 4 minutes. The rest of the season, however, Oden played sparingly. In the regular season, he averaged about 9 minutes of play, but in the playoffs he averaged around 2 minutes.

When his contract expired at the end of the season, Oden trained in an attempt to gain interest from other teams. He even had workouts with the Hornets and Mavericks. However, he wasn't given any offers and opted to play in China for the '15-'16 season.

In six NBA seasons for the Blazers and Heat, Oden only played in 105 regular season games. To give you an idea of what that means, let me put it this way: there are 82 games in a season. Six seasons would add up to a total of 492 games. Oden played equivalent to about 1.25 seasons out of a possible 6. Unbelievable.

For his NBA career, Oden averaged 8 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.2 blocks.

Part III. What Could Have Been

Oden was just as dominant a rebounder as DeAndre Jordan and Andre Drummond are today. He could block shots like Anthony Davis and run the floor like Clint Capela. He could've been an all-time great. There's no question about it.

For the Trail Blazers in particular, this question is haunting. Brandon Roy also struggled with injuries and they ultimately forced him to retire. When healthy, though, Roy was an All-Star. Aldridge was blossoming into an All-Star, and Nicolas Batum was a great playmaker and a nightly triple-double threat.

With a core of Aldridge, Oden, Roy and Batum, Portland would've been a force in the West for years to come, maybe even to this day.

But injuries are part of this game. They took an unbelievable toll on Greg Oden and completely derailed his career.

What a shame it is.

Image credits: Grantland, discuss.com.hk, Sports Illustrated

YouTube channels: GameDaySportsStars, Bandman Highlights, Frankie Vision, kingballer303

Stats: Basketball Reference


 
 
 

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