2018 Colts preview: what to expect

I've lost a lot of interest in the NFL over the past couple seasons, but I still watch my Colts.

Chuck Pagano is finally out of town. Frank Reich is in. If you ask me, it's a blessing in disguise that Josh McDaniels backed out of the job like he did (classic Patriots sleezbag move).

But what does success look like for the Colts this year?

We'll get to that.

First thing's first. Andrew Luck is back, but we're not sure he's the Andrew Luck of old (my guess: probably not). Still, it's more than a refreshing sight to see the franchise player back on the field for the first time in almost 2 years.

It's pretty simple with the Colts. If Andrew Luck plays and plays well, they're in almost every game. If he doesn't, we'd better be playing the Browns because we're not winning many games. It's really a lot like what happened in 2011 when Peyton went down (the infamous 2-14 season). I'm not saying Luck is Manning, but the situation is similar in that the success of the whole team depends on one guy.

Here's a reminder of how good pre-busted shoulder Luck was (threw 40 TDs in 2014).

The reason Luck hasn't been able to stay on the field lately is because of the atrocious offensive line, maybe the worst in football. If Anthony Castonzo is your starting left tackle, you have a problem (Grigson's parting gift before getting fired was re-signing Castonzo. Thanks, Ryan). With Jack Mewhort retiring, the line's foundation is now built upon center Ryan Kelly and rookie Quenton Nelson. It's a nice start, but there's still some work to be done.

GM Chris Ballard has done pretty well in the draft (Malik Hooker, Marlon Mack, Nelson), but has missed the mark with some free agents (Kamar Aiken). Some of the draft picks such as Hooker, Mack and Quincy Wilson have been injury-riddled in their short careers, something that's become a frustrating pattern with the Colts. If Hooker can stay healthy, he'll be a great guy to build the secondary around for a long time (he had 3 interceptions in his first 4 games last year).

Let's talk about the coaching. INSTANT. UPGRADE.

It got old really quick listening to Pagano give the same press conference answers each week. The guy didn't know how to run an offense and didn't come close to fixing the defense that he was hired to fix. Reich, on the other hand, knows his game offensively. This is the same guy who was calling the plays for Nick Foles and the Eagles in the Super Bowl last season. Sounds good to me.

So, back to the question. Success for the Colts.

It would be painful to see another losing season, or even another 8-8 finish. Honestly though, 8-8 might be a success for us given the circumstances (new coach, rusty QB, bad running game). I think the Colts could top out at 9-7. A record of 10-6 or higher might be a stretch due to the AFC South getting better as the Colts get worse. Jacksonville's defense is off the charts, as is Houston's. And if Deshaun Watson comes back healthy for the Texans, they'll finally have a QB they can count on to go with Watt, Clowney and company.

Success for the Colts, in my opinion, is 8-8 or better. Kind of sad, but that's just the reality of it.

Image credits: CBS Sports, IndyStar

YouTube channel: Collin Telesz