Breaking down the Kawhi Leonard-DeMar DeRozan trade

The Kawhi Leonard era in San Antonio is over.

After a long, confusing, and bitter season between Leonard and the Spurs, the two parties finally decided to part ways yesterday. Kawhi, the two-time All-Star, was dealt to the Toronto Raptors along with Danny Green in exchange for DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl, and a first round draft pick in 2019.

The Kawhi/Spurs saga was one of the strangest in recent memory. After Leonard helped Tim Duncan and Gregg Popovich win a fifth championship in 2014, he quickly became the marquee player in San Antonio. For the three-year stretch between 2014 and 2017, he was one of the best two-way players in the NBA and far and away the best perimeter defender.

In 2015 and 2016, Kawhi claimed back-to-back Defensive Player of the Year awards. Over the 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons, Leonard averaged 23.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.8 steals per game. He was also one of the most efficient scorers in the league, shooting close to 50% from the field during that time span. Behind LeBron James and Kevin Durant, Kawhi was probably the third best player in the game at that time.

But in the 2017 playoffs, the last time we saw Kawhi at full strength, his dominance was just eye-opening. In 12 contests, Leonard put up 27.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. All of that, plus shooting 53% from the field, 46% from downtown, and 93% from the free-throw line. In the first round against Memphis, he absolutely took over Games 5 and 6, closing the Grizzlies out. Against the Rockets in Round 2, Kawhi shut down James Harden, who came in second in the MVP voting that season, and the Spurs won the series in six games.

In Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals against the Warriors, it appeared that Golden State might have their hands full after the Spurs built a 25-point lead and Leonard put up 26 points with ease. In the third quarter, however, Kawhi exited the game after landing on Zaza Pachulia's foot and twisting his ankle. Popovich was quick to call the play dirty, and Leonard did not return for the rest of the series as the Warriors swept San Antonio.

The troubles in the Kawhi/Spurs relationship started this past season. Leonard missed the first 27 games of the season with a quad injury, but returned in December with a minutes restriction. In January, Kawhi came down with a partial tear in his shoulder against the Phoenix Suns. He returned to the court eight days later, scoring 19 points in a win over Denver. It turned out to be the last game Kawhi Leonard ever played in a Spurs jersey.

After the game against Denver, Leonard was ruled out indefinitely so that he could resume treatment on his quad injury. The Spurs' medical team cleared him for all basketball activities, but Kawhi wasn't satisfied. He sought out a second opinion and reportedly spent All-Star weekend in New York going through more rehab. The Spurs and Leonard's camp disagreed over the severity and treatment of the injury, resulting in a rift between the two.

In March, the Spurs held a players-only meeting with Kawhi asking him to play. If he had agreed, the Spurs would've instantly become a legitimate title contender. The relationship between Leonard and the Spurs became even more strained when Tony Parker claimed that his own quad injury was '100 times worse' than Kawhi's. In the Spurs' first round series against Golden State, Leonard did not attend any of the five games.

Leonard's camp reportedly requested a trade from the Spurs after a meeting between Kawhi and Popovich proved unsuccessful. ESPN reported that the Lakers or Clippers were Leonard's favorite destinations, but he was traded to Toronto yesterday instead.

Looking at this trade on paper, it looks like the Raptors won. They trade DeMar DeRozan, arguably the best player in the franchise's history, and Jakob Poeltl, a backup power forward/center. They acquire Leonard, who is the third best player in the NBA when healthy, and Green, a nice defender and knockdown three-point shooter. For the Spurs, they get DeRozan, a great scorer, and Poeltl, plus the 2019 draft pick.

Take a closer look, though. There are a lot more risks for the Raptors in this move than there are for the Spurs. According to ESPN's Chris Haynes, Kawhi has no desire to play in Toronto. After threatening to sit out next season if the Spurs didn't trade him, who's to say he doesn't pull the same stunt on the Raptors? What if he doesn't show for camp? Will he even show up for his physical?

In a worst-case scenario for Toronto, Leonard demands a trade to one of the LA teams or somewhere else. Another case could be that he's not the Kawhi that we've become accustomed to seeing, and the quad injury is still bothering him or in his head. The best-case scenario: Kawhi plays. He plays well. The Raptors become a serious challenger to the Celtics, 76ers, and Pacers in the Eastern Conference, and maybe even make a run to the Finals.

Say Kawhi plays for the Raptors. Say they make it to the Conference Finals, or even the Finals. What happens after that? Leonard only has one year left on his current deal, which is why the Spurs were actively shopping him in an attempt to get something for their superstar rather than letting him walk away for nothing. The pressure would be on the Raptors to sell Kawhi on staying in Toronto, similar to how OKC had to convince Paul George to re-sign instead of departing for the Lakers. If the events of this summer have told us anything so far, it's that Kawhi has his sights set on Los Angeles.

Let's look at this from the Spurs' side of things. This is the biggest shake-up in the organization over the past 20 years. Think about that for a second. Now, look at what they got for Leonard: DeMar DeRozan, one of the best scorers in the NBA and an All-NBA Second Team selection this past season. DeRozan has four All-Star appearances to his name and has averaged 23.3 points per game over the past five seasons. Unlike Leonard, DeRozan doesn't have a lengthy history of injuries and has been very durable over the past few seasons. He's also famous for his sub-par playoff performances, but something tells me that Popovich and his staff will be able to fix that part of DeRozan's game.

The Spurs also get Jakob Poeltl, who seems like he was built in a lab to play in their system. Poeltl is a great pick-and-roll guy with a solid jumper, plus he can rebound nicely and should fit right in with the Spurs' team-oriented offensive set. He'll also be solid back-up to LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol. The hidden gem of this trade is the 2019 first round pick, and San Antonio has been one of the best drafting teams since Pop took over in 1996.

The Spurs won this trade. You would be hard-pressed to convince me otherwise. Yes, the Raptors may have won in the short-term if Kawhi is healthy, but San Antonio has set itself up for post-Popovich time. DeRozan will be 29 when next season kicks off, and Aldridge is coming off a year of 23.1 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. DeRozan and Aldridge will figure to be a joy to watch if you're a Spurs fan. They also have guard Dejounte Murray, an All-Defensive Second Team selection this past year, and rookie Lonnie Walker IV, who showed promising signs in the Summer League.

It'll be interesting to see how this trade effects the rest of the league, particularly the Lakers. After locking up LeBron for four years, Magic Johnson doesn't need to be in a hurry to acquire Kawhi. Chances are good that after next year with Toronto, Leonard will test the free agency market and dart toward the Lakers. It wouldn't make any sense to give up long-term assets like Brandon Ingram or Kyle Kuzma for Leonard right now when you can just pick him up in the 2019 offseason without giving anything away. Ideally, the Lakers will roll out a lineup of LeBron, Kawhi, Lonzo Ball, Ingram, and Kuzma for the 2019-20 season.

The Spurs, as always, are being downplayed in what will be known as the Kawhi-for-DeMar trade, and they're fine with that. Odds are that the Spurs will be in the playoffs yet again next year without missing a beat. Yes, the seemingly spotless image of the Spurs is damaged, but it won't derail their championship aspirations.

Once again, Gregg Popovich has outsmarted his peers.

Image credits: Forbes, CBS Sports, Yardbarker